942
FXUS64 KMRX 041733
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING NEXT WEEK.
CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS, FIND SHADE, AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY THAT STORMS WILL INTERFERE WITH
INDEPENDENCE CELEBRATIONS.
- CONTINUED DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH REGULAR SUMMER
HEAT NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
RADAR HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
DOMINANT RIDGE IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO THE BACKGROUND HEIGHTS OF SUMMER.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WE
HAVE A LAST PARTING SHOT OF HIGH HEAT THIS WEEKEND, COINCIDING WITH
INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES. GENERAL REMINDER, DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS WHILE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING, OF THE TOP TWO
CONVECTIVE CAMS, RRFS (IN THIS WEATHER OFFICE WE PRONOUNCE IT RUFUS)
HAS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE THE 00Z HRRR
SPAWNS STORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE EVENING AND THEN BRINGS THEM
NORTH ACROSS THE VALLEY HEADING INTO THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A LOW
PROBABILITY, UNFORTUNATE FOR OUTDOOR FIREWORKS SCENARIO. AGAIN, A
FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING DURING THE MAIN
FESTIVITIES HOURS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT EITHER DIRECTION ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES GENERALLY DEPICT THINNER CAPE WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS DCAPE THAN WE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO AS A
CONSEQUENCE ANY STORMS WILL STILL POSSESS THE ABILITY FOR SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND OF COURSE LIGHTNING, BUT I DON'T THINK TO THE
EXTENT WE JUST SAW.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WE GENERALLY HAVE A DIURNAL SUMMER STORM
PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS SUPPRESSING STORMS FOR A TIME IS
NO LONGER PRESENT, BUT WE STILL HAVE SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO ALLOW STORMS TO FIRE. EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE ALSO HAS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, THIS SHOULD HELP DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES.
THE GOOD NEWS IS DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO REGULAR
SUMMER LEVELS. THE BAD NEWS IS THERE'S NO TRUE COOLDOWN AND FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, NO EASY PLANNING AROUND THE RANDOM STORM
CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THE MID-RANGE EC-AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VERY LOW STORM CHANCES, THIS
WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH GFS/EURO DEPICTIONS OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE
EARLY WEEK TROUGH DEPARTS THE EAST COAST, SO PERHAPS A FEW DRY DAYS
IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED THIS
EVENING. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SINCE NONE OF THE TERMINALS HAVE HAD A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH LIKELY JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 95 74 91 / 40 60 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 93 73 90 / 70 60 40 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 93 72 90 / 60 60 40 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 93 69 89 / 50 60 30 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...MCD
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