287
FXUS64 KMRX 050507
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
107 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SUBSIDING NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS, FIND SHADE, AND
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
- SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
- CONTINUED DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH REGULAR SUMMER HEAT
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
RADAR WAS MORE ACTIVE THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE EAST TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. CAMS SEEM TO BE GETTING BACK
ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF STORMS. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
CAMS HAD MOUNTAIN STORMS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST TN THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUN HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOME CAMS
DON'T HAVE STORMS DISSIPATING COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY, IMPACTS ON OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CENTERED NEAR
IL/IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH GOOD INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WITH CAPE AROUND 1K TO 2K J/KG. HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
LOCALLY WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING FLOW.
A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY
MIDWEEK, A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE A BROAD
TROUGH MOVES IN LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. THE BEST ENERGY WILL LIKELY
STAY TO THE NORTH BUT WIDESPREAD DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT BUT MUCH
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING AROUND TRI BUT HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. FOG
WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWING ALL OF THE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING. FOR THE OTHER SITES, THE MAIN IMPACT
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZE DUE TO SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE
DAY FIREWORKS WITH TYS REPORTING MVFR VISIBILITIES. CHA WAS KEPT
AT VFR 6SM, BUT TYS WAS KEPT AT 4SM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY
REMAINING VFR. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH PROB30S MAINTAINED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 73 91 / 20 70 30 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 91 72 90 / 40 70 40 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 91 71 90 / 20 70 30 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 89 68 88 / 30 60 20 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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