322
FXUS64 KMRX 050638
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE, BUT WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CONTINUE TAKING STANDARD HEAT PRECAUTIONS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, STORMS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, UNCERTAIN IN
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
- STORM CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGH NEXT WEEK, NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT
ANY PARTICULAR DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED AND HARD TO PREDICT SUMMERTIME STORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE.
AS OUR HEAT SLOWLY EDGES BACK DOWN TO SUMMER AVERAGES, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A DIURNAL PULSE TO THE CONVECTION. FOR TODAY
GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN LESS COVERAGE THAN FRIDAY, THE HRRR HAS THE
SKINNIEST CAPE CURVE YET IN THE LAST FEW DAYS PLUS A WEAK INVERSION
ALOFT INDICATING SOME SUBSIDENCE. STILL COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET TALL ENOUGH, BUT WE'LL SEE. OTHERWISE IF THE
LIMITED CAPE KEEPS THINGS MORE ISOLATED, WE MAY SEE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE TERRAIN FEATURES FIRST (MOUNTAINS, PLATEAU)
BEFORE ANY VALLEY STORMS FIRE OFF OUTFLOW.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MIDWEEK, BUT IT DEPENDS IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS. GFS IS THE
AGGRESSOR, SHOWCASING A DEEP SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING OVER TENNESSEE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. EURO IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AND THUS DRIER. NBM HEDGED
DOWNWARDS IN POP PROBABILITIES RECENTLY, AND I THINK FOR NOW THAT'S
REASONABLE.
MOST STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL STILL ABIDE BY THE
DIURNAL TREND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALTERING AT NIGHT.
WILL NEED STRONGER FORCING SUCH AS THAT SHORTWAVE TO BRING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OR COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THOSE HOURS. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, GUIDANCE DEPICTS EITHER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OR A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND WITH OUR STILL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, WE WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORM CHANCES BY THEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING AROUND TRI BUT HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. FOG
WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWING ALL OF THE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING. FOR THE OTHER SITES, THE MAIN IMPACT
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZE DUE TO SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE
DAY FIREWORKS WITH TYS REPORTING MVFR VISIBILITIES. CHA WAS KEPT
AT VFR 6SM, BUT TYS WAS KEPT AT 4SM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY
REMAINING VFR. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH PROB30S MAINTAINED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 73 90 72 / 50 30 70 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 72 90 72 / 40 20 60 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 92 72 90 71 / 40 20 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 91 69 90 68 / 40 30 60 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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