420
FXUS64 KMRX 061709
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
109 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. RISK FOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING DURING ANY BOUT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK THE JULY SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
HANG OUT TO OUR WEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF INTO A BROADER TROUGH, AND THEN BY THE WEEKEND A
WEAK FRONT MAY BE STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LOCALLY FAIRLY CONSTANT RIDGE HEIGHTS WITH SOME WAVERING IN
INTENSITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO TYPICAL JULY HEAT. OUR
VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED, WITH
PWAT VALUES EACH DAY AROUND 1.7 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH STORM
MOTIONS GENERALLY STILL ON THE SLOWER SIDE, EFFICIENT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL YIELD QUICK ACCUMULATIONS, POTENTIALLY SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SO, FLOOD RISK WILL BE
PRESENT DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS FORM, CONGEAL, AND WHAT THEY
MOVE OVER.
AS FAR AS SEVERITY, THERE'S NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR, AND
THE HIGHLY SATURATED AIRMASS LIKELY KEEPS OVERALL CAPE SUFFICIENT
FOR TALL THUNDERSTORMS, SO WET DOWNBURSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD, SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS ACTIVITY
STILL SEEMS TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL, SINCE WE LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEK, SO EACH DAY ISN'T A TOTAL WASHOUT,
JUST BE LIGHTNING AWARE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
STORMS WILL BE TRYING TO FORM AND RAIN OUT AGAIN. WHEN WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY TRY TO
EXTEND A FRONT DOWN HERE, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD MECHANISM FOR STORMS. BUT, THAT'S STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
IN THE MEAN TIME, THE HEARTBEAT OF SUMMER CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
AT TRI FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PRODUCING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS TRI EARLY IN THE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 73 92 / 20 30 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 88 72 90 / 40 60 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 88 71 90 / 30 70 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 86 68 88 / 30 80 30 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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