402
FXUS64 KMRX 061830
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY.
- MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, RISK
FOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU.
SOME TRAINING NOTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL TAGING WITH LOCAL
TERRAIN FEATURES. PWS 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN. LATEST MPD ILLUSTRATES THIS THREAT AS WELL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS THIS
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AR QUITE WELL.
SPC MESO AND TYS ACARS SOUNDING SHOWS AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 5.5 DEGREES. VERTICAL PROFILE IS MORE SATURATED
LIMITING DCAPE IN THE 500-700 RANGE. EFFECTIVE AND 0-1KM SHEAR ARE
QUITE LIMITED SO OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE
WITH SOME MULTI-CELL. OVERALL, SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS QUITE LIMITED
BUT ENOUGH THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH RANGE
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
PWS RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID
70S MOST LOCATIONS. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUITE LIMITED DUE TO
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. IF SOME OF STORMS CAN TAG-UP WITH ANY
TERRAIN FEATURES AND TRAIN ALONG ANY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BOUNDARY, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
REFS AND HREF DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING. OVERALL,
AIRMASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE SO IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON'S ENVIRONMENT.
FOR THURSDAY, THIS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION KEEPING THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A SERIES OF JET STREAK/SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES, OHIO VALLEY, INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AS WELL. EVENTUALLY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
AT TRI FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PRODUCING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS TRI EARLY IN THE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 89 72 90 / 40 30 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 87 71 89 / 60 50 30 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 87 70 88 / 40 60 20 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 86 68 87 / 40 70 40 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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