417
FXUS64 KMRX 071053
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
653 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK , WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
- MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, RISK
FOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING.NING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OZARKS, AND WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY, AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WE
WILL HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG) EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LITTLE TO NO SHEAR, SO
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
HIGH PW VALUES IN THE 1.7-1.9 RANGE WILL RESULT IN STORMS THAT
DUMP HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. A DRIER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ONGOING AT ALL 3 SITES BUT ESPECIALLY
TRI, WHICH REMAINS LIFR OR LESS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE AROUND TYS AND TRI, SO PROB30 WAS
INTRODUCED. PLACES THAT SEE RAIN COULD SEE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 70 88 70 / 80 20 50 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 68 87 68 / 60 30 40 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
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