461
FXUS64 KMRX 071709
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
109 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
- MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OZARKS, AND WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY, AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WE
WILL HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG) EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LITTLE TO NO SHEAR, SO
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
HIGH PW VALUES IN THE 1.7-1.9 RANGE WILL RESULT IN STORMS THAT
DUMP HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. A DRIER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR TRI AND TYS. LOW CLOUD
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH
THE GREATEST EXTENT LIKELY OVER TRI AND TYS WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR/POSSIBLY LIFR AT TRI IS ANTICIPATED
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 72 90 / 10 30 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 89 71 89 / 20 50 50 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 70 89 / 20 50 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 87 68 86 / 30 40 40 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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