455
FXUS64 KMRX 081754
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
154 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.
- MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING.
- A WET PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AND MAY POSE
A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION AND IS OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE STRETCHING BACK
TO A LOW IN ARKANSAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OR
TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION
BY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NBM
AND CAMS. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN WITH THAT BOUNDARY
STILL LURKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. HRRR
HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE REST OF THE CAMS LOOK
MORE SCATTERED. NBM SUGGESTS ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE VALLEY AND
MORE SCATTERED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. PWAT VALUES MAY BE A TAD LOWER TODAY CLOSER
TO 1.5 INCHES BUT STEERING FLOW WILL STILL BE WESTERLY AND PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, SOME TRAINING MAY OCCUR. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND DCAPE
VALUES BUT THE THREAT IS TOO LOW FOR THE SPC OUTLOOK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGER.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF MINOR
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MAY POSE A HIGHER FLOOD RISK WITH HIGH RAIN RATES DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATED TIMINGS OF PROB30S BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND CAM TRENDS. PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG
AT KTRI. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FOR TYS/TRI TOMORROW,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES MAY LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF AT LEAST
VICINITY ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 73 91 / 20 40 20 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 88 72 88 / 40 60 50 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 71 88 / 30 60 40 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 85 68 85 / 60 70 40 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KRS
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