535
FXUS64 KMRX 090523
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
- MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING.
- A WET PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AND MAY POSE
A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSIST OF WEAK RIDGING ATOP THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, A DIFFUSE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CAN BE NOTED ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN TYPICAL SUMMER-
TIME DIURNAL FASHION, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LATEST MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS FROM CAMS PAINT MLCAPE
BETWEEN 1000- 2000 J/KG WITH PWAT VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. THE
FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES
PER KBNA SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND LIMIT DCAPE VALUES TO 400-700
J/KG. THE LOWER DCAPE VALUES WILL HELP TO LIMIT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BUT THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LCL-EL MEAN
WIND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION. OVERALL, A GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST
THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED WEST TO
EAST JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT, ALONG WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP BENEATH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AGREE THAT
PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO JUST NORTH OF TWO INCHES FRIDAY
ONWARD.
GUIDANCE HINTS THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPING TOWARDS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUS PWATS. FLASH
FLOODING THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE, IF NOT INCREASE, INTO THE
WEEKEND. THOUGH, THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AXIS OF
PRECIP STILL REMAINS A LITTLE FUZZY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THE FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
RAIN HAS LARGELY EXITED THE AREA WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY
BEING WHAT TO WATCH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS ARE AT TYS AND TRI WITH TRI HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG OR IFR CEILINGS. CHA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
CLOUDS AT OR BELOW 3,000 FEET, BUT CEILINGS WILL BE LESS COMMON AT
THAT LEVEL. TRI WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR,
POTENTIALLY NOT UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED AT ALL 3 SITES SINCE THERE ARE
FAIRLY EQUAL CHANCES AT EACH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 72 88 / 30 80 40 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 87 71 85 / 60 90 70 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 86 70 85 / 60 90 70 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 84 67 81 / 60 90 90 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...BW
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