030
FXUS64 KMRX 100629
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY POSSIBLY STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
- THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY
POSE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT, STARTING TODAY. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR IL/IN/OH
AND BY SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
IS NEAR IA/MO/IL. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION POSSIBLY STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN
AND EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY KICK OFF AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT WOULD LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE IF THAT HAPPENS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OF STORMS TODAY. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE
LIKELY BUT THERE WILL BE LULLS AT TIMES. FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IF A MCS DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED LINE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OR
CLUSTERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THE FLOODING THREAT
IS INCREASING TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 TO
2 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WAVES OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
BUT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT TIMES SOME
FLOODING ISSUES ARE LIKELY.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE REGION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND MAY NOT FOLLOW THE DIURNAL RULES.
AGAIN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ORGANIZED
LINE OR MCS AT SOME POINT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE FLOODING THREAT INCREASES BY SATURDAY. PWATS MAY BE A
TAD HIGHER AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALREADY HAVE SATURATED SOILS.
ALSO, TREES WILL FALL MORE EASILY IN SATURATED SOILS.
BY SUNDAY, THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION
AND THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. BY MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE GA/TN
BORDER. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THERE WILL BE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH TIMING
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL TRY TO
TIME PERIODS OF THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WITH TEMPO AND
PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS, BUT THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
THESE TIMES AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER, A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY TRI LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE
PROBALITY STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 73 88 71 / 60 80 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 71 84 70 / 90 100 80 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 70 85 69 / 90 90 70 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 67 81 66 / 100 90 90 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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