804
FXUS64 KMRX 101813 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 212 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY POSSIBLY STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
- THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY
POSE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT, STARTING TODAY. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR IL/IN/OH
AND BY SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
IS NEAR IA/MO/IL. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION POSSIBLY STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN
AND EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY KICK OFF AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT WOULD LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE IF THAT HAPPENS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OF STORMS TODAY. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE
LIKELY BUT THERE WILL BE LULLS AT TIMES. FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IF A MCS DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED LINE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OR
CLUSTERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THE FLOODING THREAT
IS INCREASING TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 TO
2 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. WAVES OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
BUT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT TIMES SOME
FLOODING ISSUES ARE LIKELY.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE REGION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND MAY NOT FOLLOW THE DIURNAL RULES.
AGAIN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ORGANIZED
LINE OR MCS AT SOME POINT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE FLOODING THREAT INCREASES BY SATURDAY. PWATS MAY BE A
TAD HIGHER AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALREADY HAVE SATURATED SOILS.
ALSO, TREES WILL FALL MORE EASILY IN SATURATED SOILS.
BY SUNDAY, THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION
AND THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. BY MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE GA/TN
BORDER. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MAYBE 21Z OR SO. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER THAT UNTIL 06Z OR SO, WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS FAVOR MAINLY KTYS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION,
SHOWING A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STORMS FROM THE KTYS VICINITY
NORTHWEST THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY (KSCX) AND INTO KENTUCKY. BUT I
INCLUDED THEM IN KTRI AND KCHA AS WELL AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 88 71 87 / 80 80 70 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 84 70 86 / 100 80 60 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 85 69 86 / 90 70 60 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 81 66 83 / 90 90 60 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...CD
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