858
FXUS64 KMRX 121804
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT,
BUT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER INTO MONDAY.
- CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG GUSTY WIND OR TWO IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TUESDAY ONWARDS WITH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A LOW PM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS OF THE CURRENT RADAR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS A COUPLE AREAS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE, PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE RANDOMLY DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO POSE A
FLOODING RISK.
A LARGE SWATH OF NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
CANNOT TAKE ANY MORE SUSTAINED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AFTER THE
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY. AND YET THE STORM CHANCES WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW IN OUR VICINITY WILL CONTINUE. FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SUFFERED FLOODING AS A
RESULT, YOU NEED TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ADDITIONAL ACTIONS.
LOOKING AT VARIOUS GUIDANCE, ONCE MORE WE HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.
00Z HRRR IS ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OUTPUTS, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. STORMS WILL NOT BE CONSTANT, WE
WILL STILL SEE REGULAR LULLS, BUT SHOULD THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION MODELED COME TO FRUITION WE'LL DEFINITELY SEE ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED FLOODING EVENTS. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS VARIOUS
DEGREES OF SCATTERED STORMS, BUT GENERALLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD OF AN
INTERPRETATION AS THE HRRR. THE WORRISOME THING IS THE 00Z HRRR
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND HANDLED THE INITIAL 6 HOURS PRETTY
SOLIDLY, AND SO I'D PROBABLY LEAN SLIGHTLY MORE IN THAT GENERAL
DIRECTION. THE OVERALL SETUP IS STILL FAVORABLE, WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO POSSESS THE ABILITY OF PRODUCING 2-4" PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES, AND ANY AMOUNT OF TRAINING OR PERSISTENCE OF HIGH
RAIN RATES WILL PRODUCE FLOODING FOR THOSE WHO ARE ALREADY SUPER
SATURATED IN THEIR SOIL CONDITIONS.
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERNMOST TENNESSEE VALLEY, MEANWHILE, ARE
BETTER OFF, NEEDING 2" OR SO OVER THE FULL COURSE OF AN HOUR TO
PRODUCE FLOODING. AS LONG AS STORMS CONTINUE MOVING OR DON'T MOVE IN
PARALLEL WITH EACH OTHER, FLOOD RISK IS RELATIVELY LOWER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER, IF
THEY GET REPEATED BOUTS, THEY WILL SEE FLOODING TOO. AS FAR AS
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH AS SATURATED AS THE PROFILES ARE IF STORMS
CAN GET TALL ENOUGH AND STRONG ENOUGH THEY'LL POSE A RISK FOR
GUSTY WINDS, WHICH WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FELLING TREES IN
WATERLOGGED AREAS. BUT SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO HANG AROUND IN THE MID SOUTH REGION
THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY, AND SO RAIN CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND. SEEMS
LIKE THE LOW DIPS TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT HEADS WEST, AND SO STORM
CHANCES ON TUESDAY ARE RELEGATED MORE TO CHATTANOOGA AND OTHER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSE A
CONTINUED FLOOD RISK FOR ALREADY SATURATED AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE MODELED STORM COVERAGE AND RISKS IN ORDER TO
DETERMINE IF THE FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.
EVENTUALLY AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEK, THE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT
TO THE WEST, AND WE WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JULY PATTERN OF
DAILY WARM WEATHER, AND MODERATELY HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS. WE'LL KEEP
OUR RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO A DAILY DIURNAL PULSE OF
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL REMAIN WITH US.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TYS AND TRI,
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVER A TERMINAL. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT AT CHA AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS,
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 83 70 84 / 60 80 60 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 82 68 85 / 80 90 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 83 68 86 / 80 80 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 80 64 85 / 40 60 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...99
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