657
FXUS64 KMRX 122341
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
741 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT, BUT MAY
BE EXTENDED LATER INTO MONDAY.
- THOUGH CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG GUSTY
WIND OR TWO IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WITH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A LOW PM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION. PWS REMAIN HIGH, AROUND 2 INCHES, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. NAM SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, AND A WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 10K FEET, THOUGH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS.
NONETHELESS, ISOLATED 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF THESE AMOUNTS
OVERLAP WITH AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN FLOODING, ADDITIONAL
FLOODING WILL BE MUCH QUICKER TO OCCUR. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CAN LIKELY HANDLE THESE
HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITH FEWER PROBLEMS.
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOES THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY. CURRENTLY, DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE WATCH. COULD THERE BE
ADDITIONAL ISSUES OVERNIGHT, YES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OUTCOME IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
REMAINING SHOWERS OR STORMS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR
NOW.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REMAINS OVERHEAD. AS WITH TODAY, ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IF ANY HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS.
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TAKES A JOG TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE
TO THE VICINITY OF THESE AREAS TO THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT STILL WITH CHANCES OF SOME DIURNAL DAILY
CONVECTION, ARE EXPECTED BEYOND TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AROUND A
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY AT TYS, OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES REGARDING SPREAD OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT A LULL IS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO DIP TONIGHT, THOUGH NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF
DEGRADATIONS IN THE VALLEY. A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TS AROUND, MAINLY AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 83 70 83 / 80 90 60 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 83 68 85 / 70 80 20 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 83 67 85 / 70 80 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 80 64 85 / 50 70 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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