634
FXUS64 KMRX 131828
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT AS ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE.
- THOUGH CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG GUSTY WIND
OR TWO IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A LOW PM CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED FLOODING. THIS IS DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND A CONTINUED HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES IN PLACE.
FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING AND RECEIVE ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL, LOCALIZED, 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. PIN
POINTING WHERE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IS TOUGH, DUE TO
THE RANDOM AND POP-UP NATURE OF THE PRECIP. BOTTOM LINE, THOUGH
MOST PLACES WILL NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOME.
THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AL, JOGS SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SOUTHWEST JOG, COMBINED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS WELL AS DIMINISH ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT HOPEFULLY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THEM WILL
BE ALONG I-40 AND SOUTH, CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION, OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WE RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
OUR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS, WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES,
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVIER SHOWER MOVING DIRECTLY OVER
A TERMINAL. IN THESE INSTANCES, MVFR CONDITIONS OR PROBABLE FOR A
BRIEF TIME. VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ONCE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND VFR
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 84 70 88 / 50 60 20 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 86 69 88 / 20 50 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 86 68 89 / 20 40 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 86 62 90 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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