480
FXUS64 KMRX 140515
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT AS ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE.
- THOUGH CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG GUSTY WIND
OR TWO IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A LOW PM CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED FLOODING. THIS IS DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND A CONTINUED HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES IN PLACE.
FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING AND RECEIVE ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL, LOCALIZED, 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. PIN
POINTING WHERE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IS TOUGH, DUE TO
THE RANDOM AND POP-UP NATURE OF THE PRECIP. BOTTOM LINE, THOUGH
MOST PLACES WILL NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOME.
THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AL, JOGS SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS SOUTHWEST JOG, COMBINED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS WELL AS DIMINISH ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT HOPEFULLY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THEM WILL
BE ALONG I-40 AND SOUTH, CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION, OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WE RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
OUR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING AT CHA,
AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND CHA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOWER
CHANCE AT TYS. WILL KEEP THE VCSH AT TYS FOR NOW AND THE PROB30
THUNDER GROUP AT CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 70 88 72 / 80 30 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 69 88 71 / 50 10 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 68 88 70 / 30 10 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 62 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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