139
FXUS64 KMRX 142344
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 735 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES COULD OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE SPOTS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER
THAN RECENT DAYS.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING BACK HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE MORRISTOWN CWA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BENEATH ESE UPPER FLOW AS WE
REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THAT IS MIGRATING
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH, GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST,
LEADING TO CONTINUED DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE HELPS
KEEP THE NORTHERN AREAS DRY. FOR FRIDAY ONWARD WE'LL LOSE THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE AS TROUGHING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS TO A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH LOCATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. SO, LOOK FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME TO FEATURE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT TREND ALSO
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HIGH PWAT AIR MASS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOUNDINGS THAT PROMOTE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN THE
RAINFALL WE'VE HAD OF LATE, SOME PLACES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THEY RECEIVE MORE
HEAVY RAINS. THAT SAID, PWATS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THEY WERE OVER
THE WEEKEND, THERE'S LESS OF A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINS, AND STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING POTENTIAL, SO I THINK THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS PRETTY
LOW. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME THAT THREAT REALLY TAKE
A NOSEDIVE AS WE GET SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE IN THE DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGHING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LITTLE CHANGES TO INHERITED 18Z TAFS. TEMPO FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG
ADDED FOR TYS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF LOWER CIG WILL OCCUR
THERE TONIGHT. MODELS AND OVERALL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT CHA
MAY EXPERIENCE LOWER CIG DURING THE OVERNIGHT OUT OF ALL THE
SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EARLY TOMORROW, BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN VC OF TERMINAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAIN IF VC ANYTHING WILL IMPACT TYS, SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW. TRI HAS BEEN DRIEST, SO VFR FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECTED THERE, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TRIES TO THROW IN FOG IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT AND RE-ACCESS AT
06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 87 71 90 / 20 40 10 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 89 72 90 / 10 10 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 89 71 90 / 10 10 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KS
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