020
FXUS64 KMRX 151422
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BY THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED SOUTH OF
I-40 AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH.
- BETTER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRI, SAT AND SUN
AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN ON HYTOP RADAR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON'S
CONVECTIVE TIME PERIOD, SO UPDATED THE HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CLOUD/RAIN SITUATION AND THE TRANSITION TO AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK THUS FAR THIS
MORNING DESPITE A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY WITH ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-40. A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN GA/AL TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH
OF I-40. A TYPICAL SUMMER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES). SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES IS LOW BUT NONZERO. STEERING FLOW IS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
LOWER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AND REMNANTS OF THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY,
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE A CONCERN IF
THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WILL START WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CHA, BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MAINLY CHA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL, SO WILL INCLUDE
A PROB30 THUNDER GROUP AT CHA. SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE DOES NOT
CURRENTLY LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 72 90 73 / 40 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 73 90 74 / 10 10 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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