025
FXUS64 KMRX 151723
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BY THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED SOUTH OF
I-40 AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH.
- BETTER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRI, SAT AND SUN
AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN ON HYTOP RADAR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON'S
CONVECTIVE TIME PERIOD, SO UPDATED THE HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CLOUD/RAIN SITUATION AND THE TRANSITION TO AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK THUS FAR THIS
MORNING DESPITE A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY WITH ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-40. A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN GA/AL TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH
OF I-40. A TYPICAL SUMMER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES). SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES IS LOW BUT NONZERO. STEERING FLOW IS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
LOWER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AND REMNANTS OF THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY,
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE A CONCERN IF
THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE CONTINUED NEAR AND AROUND CHA
WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND SCT IN THE 2,500 TO 3,000
FEET AGL RANGE. AS SUCH, VFR WAS MAINTAINED WITH AN UPCOMING TEMPO
FOR MVFR. THE OTHER TWO SITES ARE SEEING SOME CLOUDS NEAR THIS
RANGE BUT NO RAINFALL. TONIGHT, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT
WAS LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 72 90 73 / 40 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 73 90 74 / 10 10 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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