185
FXUS64 KMRX 152351
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND TOMORROW, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
CURRENTLY, A 5,960M HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR ARKANSAS TO WEST
TENNESSEE. WITH BETTER MOISTURE, SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MOVING TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO MEAN
FLOW. LOW-END INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS
BUT STILL INSUFFICIENT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR MUCH FLOODING
CONCERN. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT PROGRESS
RIGHT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING SOUTHERN RAIN CHANCES COMPARED TO TODAY.
BY FRIDAY, TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO PROGRESS OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY,
GIVEN THIS PATTERN. BY SATURDAY, THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WITH ITS FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE
FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY AS TROUGHING
TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MORE ELEVATED THAN IN RECENT DAYS. WHILE MODELS STILL DIFFER,
INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED
FLOODING WILL ALSO COME BACK INTO VIEW, BUT THANKFULLY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST SOURCES KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE REGION AND AN OVERALL SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. HOWEVER, HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THAN THE WEEKEND. SOME RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
VERY ISOLD SHRA OUT THERE THAT MAY NOT EVEN IMPACT TERMINALS THE
REST OF THE DAY. CALM NIGHT AHEAD WITH THE RETURNED POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND/OR LOW CIG AT CHA AND TYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SAME AT TRI, BUT WITH NO RAINFALL AND NO
IMPACTS TO CIG OR VSBY THIS MORNING, LEANED WITH KEEPING OUT. DUE
TO MUCH LIKE THE SAME TOMORROW AS TODAY WHEN IT COMES TO SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE STORM, PROB30 OR ANY OTHER MENTION NOT ADDED
BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF ISOLATION/PROBABILITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 73 91 / 0 30 10 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 91 74 90 / 10 20 30 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 90 73 90 / 10 20 20 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS
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