656
FXUS64 KMRX 160520
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE QUIET. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO THE LOWER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS OVER NORTHERN MS/AL AND CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS AND THE
NBM AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE SOUTH
OF I- 40 AND THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. REMNANTS OF THE
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK. SEVERE AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE VERY LOW TODAY BUT NEVER ZERO THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED PERHAPS EVEN NUMEROUS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. BY
SATURDAY, A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S., ALTHOUGH WEAK THIS
FAR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE PATTERN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH GOOD INSTABILITY PRESENT. FRI, SAT AND SUN WILL ALL HAVE GOOD
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES SAT AND
SUN. SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE BY SAT OR SUN.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED MON, TUES, WED
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS POSSIBLE,
BUT THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE RIGHT NOW LOOKS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY VFR FORECAST
ALL SITES FOR THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON CHA AND POSSIBLY TYS, AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL LOOKS TO BE AT CHA
SO WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 THUNDER GROUP THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 74 91 73 / 30 10 60 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 75 90 74 / 20 30 70 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 74 90 73 / 20 20 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 92 71 93 71 / 0 10 30 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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