216
FXUS64 KMRX 191741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE, WITH ACTIVITY MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- POSSIBLE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEARS
WATCHING FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAPABILITY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CAN BE CLASSIFIED BY RIDGING GENERALLY
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY WEAK NWLY FLOW OVER US WITH
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES CYCLING THROUGH. A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ENVELOPED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE PENINSULA AND BIG BEND OF FLORIDA EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THIS WEEK. A STOUT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE
CURVING UP AROUND NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WILL BRING
OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING THAT, WE'LL STILL
BE SITUATED EAST OF UPPER RIDGE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN REGARDS TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM MODE AND ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN, PLENTIFUL UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH PWATS RUNNING NEAR 2 INCHES. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK, FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS. THEREFORE, HEAVY RAIN,
LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE GUSTY CONDITIONS, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
ON THE TABLE TODAY. FOR TOMORROW, ACCORDING TO CAMS, THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH A PSEUDO STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER US. WEAK FLOW
MAY KEEP THE CURRENTLY UN-NAMED SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, POSSIBLY NOT
IMPACTING US AT ALL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY NEED MONITORING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION. THE SPC HIGHLIGHTS KENTUCKY INTO PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY, AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TIMING WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A
ROLE, BUT DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.
FOLLOWING THE MID-WEEK COLD FRONT, THURSDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH
LOW TO MID 80S HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE CYCLING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA AND UNFORTUNATELY INCREASED DEW POINTS YET AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. VCTS AND PROB30 ARE IN FOR ALL SITES DURING THIS
TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER OR STORM
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LASTLY, FOG IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ANY SITE THAT
RECEIVES ENOUGH RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION YET IN TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 92 75 92 / 30 50 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 89 74 90 / 20 40 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 89 73 90 / 20 50 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 87 70 87 / 40 50 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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