052
FXUS64 KMRX 231725
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TODAY OVER OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
- HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEAVY RAIN AXIS FROM
ROUGHLY HAMILTON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MONROE AND POLK COUNTIES IN
TN, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NC INTO TODAY. THAT IS
THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AS
OF 10 PM EDT ON WED JULY 22ND, A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED IN THE TN
VALLEY, STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN AL AND MS. THIS IS
GOING TO INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING BOUNDARY (POSSIBLY A
STRONG SEA BREEZE AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TS BERTHA) IN THE COMING HOURS, KICKING
OFF MORE ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN AL EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND OUR WESTERN NC
COUNTIES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON
A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH GOOD
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING OVER 5" OF RAIN. THIS SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN CONFLUENT WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
TRAINING CONVECTION. SOME BRIEF STORMS IN MCMINN, MONROE, AND
SOUTHWEST BLOUNT COUNTY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE 2-3" RANGE ALREADY. THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEMS WELL WARRANTED AND I SEE NO
REASON FOR CHANGES. IN TERMS OF TIMING, IT ONCE AGAIN SEEMS LIKE
AN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING THREAT WINDOW.
BY LATE MORNING THE INFLUENCE OF TS BERTHA WILL BE WEAKENING, WITH
INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AND FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL THREAT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. THAT SAID, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME LINGERING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST TN
AND WESTERN NC COUNTIES WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT IS MORE CONFIDENTLY TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR FRIDAY ONWARD, THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE A BUILDING RIDGE OUT
WEST AND A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA. A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IS SEEN TO
MOVE FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS TN/KY ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW. OTHERWISE, TIMING OF ANY ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM (TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS) WILL BE AROUND TYS AND ESPECIALLY CHA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD, AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A
PERIOD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE BACK
TO MVFR ALL SITES LATER IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 87 72 87 / 30 80 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 86 71 85 / 20 50 40 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 86 69 84 / 10 40 40 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 82 67 81 / 20 60 60 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-LOUDON-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99
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