019
FXUS64 KMRX 232338
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 735 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
- SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
- FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS TRYING TO EDGE TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS DIMINISHING ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ADJACENT, BUT WILL
ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR
NOW SINCE THE THREAT OF FLOODING, WHILE LOWER, IS STILL NON-ZERO
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH,
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WITH ITS AXIS UP THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ALOFT DURING
FRIDAY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY OVER
OUR SOUTH AND EAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
ENERGY LOOKS VERY LIMITED BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE CAMS SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY OUR SW NC COUNTIES.
WHILE CURRENTLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING LOOKS LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND YESTERDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE HWO FOR
FRIDAY.
THE GENERAL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TO OUR WEST OVER THE PLAINS AND AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WE WILL SEE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION AT TIMES WHICH WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MOST NOTABLE SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
THE DETAILS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST). FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IS QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THESE FEATURES DOES GENERALLY LOOK HIGHER
NORTH THAN SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL,
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES NOT
FAR EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
CURRENTLY, MVFR HAS BEEN ONGOING AT CHA WITH SOME OFF AND ON AT
TYS. TYS AND TRI ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THESE CONDITIONS INITIATED AT CHA BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH
VCSH MAINTAINED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN RAIN BY LATE
MORNING WITH RECOVERY TO VFR MOST LIKELY AT TRI. ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS LIKELY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS VS SHOWERS AT CHA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 88 72 87 / 40 50 50 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 86 70 85 / 20 20 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 69 85 / 10 20 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 83 67 81 / 20 20 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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