124
FXUS64 KMRX 261742
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. IF
MULTIPLE STORMS TRACK OVER ONE LOCATION, ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOLDS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY. TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS AS HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S BECOME MORE
COMMONPLACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JULY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY
CONTINUAL BROAD RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST,
PLACING US WITHIN THE REGION OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS STILL RESIDES TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER, AT LEAST THROUGH
TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON, STREAMS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GLIDE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IF THEY ARE ABLE TO LINE UP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, ISOLATED
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. LATER TODAY TRIES TO DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING STILL REMAINS A BIG QUESTION
MARK. 24 HOURS AGO, MODELS DEPICTED A FAIRLY STOUT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN MCS OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE AREA. IT COULD VERY WELL JUST MISS US TO THE WEST.
SOMETHING TO WATCH, EVEN THOUGH HIGH-RES MODELS CANT'S SEEM TO ALL
AGREE. LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BE DRY FOR MOST WITH SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND.
A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TUESDAY, WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS HAS NOW MOVED UP IN TIME
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST. GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENT, ASSUMING
IT DOESN'T CHANGE, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, DAY 3 AND 4 FROM
THE SPC HIGHLIGHT NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOLLOWING TUESDAY POTENTIALLY HAVING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK (UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S HEAT INDICES IN THE VALLEY), THE COLD
FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD BE A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE WE TURN THE PAGE TO
AUGUST NEXT WEEKEND WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN AT TYS/TRI, BUT LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT, LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
LIKELY IMPACT SEEMS TO BE CHA, WHERE A PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
INCLUSION MAY BE NEEDED AT TYS WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WHILE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTS BY CONVECTION, LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
TRI MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 93 75 95 / 0 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 90 75 92 / 0 20 10 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 91 74 92 / 0 20 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 86 69 87 / 10 20 50 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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