351
FXUS64 KMRX 271117 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
717 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 715 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
- POSSIBLE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN. AT THIS
TIME, TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOLDS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY HOLDING JUST BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE MAJORITY OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON NOW THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY.
NOW OR THIS MORNING:
LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY, WE MONITORED
AN MCS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF KY. IT GENERATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES FOR MIDDLE TN, BUT THAT THREAT NEVER EXTENDED EAST FROM
THERE. WHAT'S LEFT OF A BROKEN APART AND DECAYING MCS, IS WHAT'S
CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU THIS MORNING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. AT WORST, STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT A
DECENT PACE AND AREN'T BACK-BUILDING, SO A FLOODING THREAT IS
PRETTY LOW.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING:
IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER
NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING MCS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE, PAIRED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTING OUT OF KY AND WV DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 12Z TOMORROW DEPICT EITHER
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE OR NONE AT ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
IF THERE'S SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY. NORTHEAST TN INTO
SOUTHWEST VA MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS, IF ANY, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING (TUESDAY):
MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FROM THE
COLD FRONT MUCH EARLIER IN TIME, WHEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO IT WAS
THOUGHT TO BE AN OVERNIGHT EVENT. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ARRIVAL
WILL MOST LIKELY BE DURING THE "BEST" TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OR PEAK HEATING, HOW IT ENDS UP PLAYING OUT WILL ALL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZING WE CAN DO. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ONCE WE GET
CLOSER AND ARE ABLE TO SEE HOW EARLY TOMORROW MAY UNFOLD, WE CAN
DETERMINE IF SECONDARY HAZARDS LIKE TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL
NEED CONSIDERED AS WELL. TIMING AS OF THIS MOMENT WILL BE AS EARLY
AS THE LATER MORNING HOURS TO AS LATE AS THE EVENING TIME FRAME.
SO, MOST LIKELY TIME OF GREATEST CHANCES/THREAT WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WON'T BE
MUCH TO TOUCH ON AT ALL, IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST VA INTO NORTHEAST TN MAY ESCAPE THE
HOTTEST CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, BUT
THAT GOES WITHOUT SAYING. MID TO UPPER 90S AND MAYBE SOME 100S
SPRINKLED IN FOR HEAT INDICES TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH
TO THE GA BORDER. BETTER CHANCES FOR LOW 100S HEAT INDICES FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO JUST BELOW NORMAL AND FOR THE MOST PART, HOLDING
STEADY AS LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SINK
SOUTH. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO TREND LOWER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A TREND
UPWARD BEGINS FRIDAY. SURPRISINGLY ENOUGH, ONCE WE CLEAR THINGS
OUT OF HERE EARLY WEDNESDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CREEP BACK IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THAT TIME, BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE AND A SYSTEM POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE ONLY CATEGORY
RESTRICTION IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KTRI BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP
BY 15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH IN LOCATION AND TIMING TO
PRECLUDE MENTIONING IT AT THE MOMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 75 95 74 / 20 0 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 73 93 71 / 10 10 80 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 73 93 70 / 10 10 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 68 86 66 / 0 20 100 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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