287
FXUS64 KMRX 291729
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS/HUMIDITY TODAY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
- A WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
STORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THEY CONTINUE THEIR PUSH INTO
CENTRAL GA. AS OF THE 03Z SFC ANALYSIS, THE COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NC,
NORTH OF CHATTANOOGA, AND NW INTO MIDDLE TN SOUTH NASHVILLE.
DEW POINTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS, WITH LOWER 70S STILL POSSIBLY
HANGING ON TODAY FROM ABOUT I-40 AND SOUTH. MUCH LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE READINGS FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
EVERYWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS, WILL
BE BELOW 90 FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BUMPS UP
OR DOWN A FEW DEGREES BETWEEN THE 80 AND 90 DEGREE MARK (THE
VALLEY). WHAT CANNOT BE FORGOTTEN TO MENTION IS THAT WE'LL BE DRY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SSE-SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THE MUCH WELCOMED DRIER AIR WILL BE REPLACED
WITH MOIST AIR AGAIN, WHEN DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT UP INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW TO MID 70S DEWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VALLEY, WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PATTERN CHANGE COMES THIS WEEKEND AS WE MOVE INTO AUGUST, AND
APPEARS WILL BE A WET ONE. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NE WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE OUT JUST AS A NEW SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FORM OVER TOP
THE SW US RIDGE. IT'LL CROSS INTO THE DAKOTA'S THURSDAY AND THEN
MAKE ITS DIVE SE THROUGH IA, IL, MO, AND SO ON FRIDAY. AROUND EARLY
OR MID SATURDAY, IT'LL BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP NEAR WESTERN KY
AND TN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IF IT WILL
BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW, WHICH COULD MEAN A NEAR STATIONARY SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE COULD BE DAYS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DAY 5 ERO CREATED BY WPC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGS A PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT CHA AND TYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR AT TRI BUT TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG AND
CEILINGS IN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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