827
FXUS64 KMRX 022319
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NE TN AND SW
VA THIS AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
LATTER HALF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE KY/IN/OH BORDER, WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ADVECTING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED TO WEAKLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LOCALLY.
BETWEEN MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS, THIS
AFTERNOONS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MLCAPE 500-1250 J/KG,
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.8 INCHES, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO DCAPE 800-1100 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS, A MARGINAL RISK FOR A ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, LATEST RADAR TRENDS PROVIDE
DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE. RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO
HELPED SATURATE SOILS WITH MANY 1 HR FFGS IN THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE,
THUS, ISOLATED FLOODING COULD BECOME A THREAT WHERE SLOWER MOVING OR
TRAINING STORMS OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
A LARGELY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG
FOR SOME. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY CUTOFF FROM
MEAN FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW CHURNS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BECAUSE OF WORKED OVER
SOILS, BROAD MARGINAL RISKS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN WITH HOW/WHEN THE CUTOFF MELDS BACK INTO MEAN FLOW LATE WEEK,
BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING INFLUENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS THE LOW
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MEAN FLOW SOMETIME LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A STRAY SHOWER MAY STILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE, AND WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT GIVEN THE CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CHANCE LOOKS HIGH ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CIGS ALL SITES TO INCLUDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE MVFR LEVEL FOG AT TRI, AND
CANNOT RULE OUT DENSE FOG AT TRI ESPECIALLY IN THE SKY TEMPORARILY
CLEARS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 86 70 88 / 10 60 20 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 84 69 86 / 20 50 20 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 84 68 86 / 10 50 10 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 81 66 84 / 50 50 20 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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