460
FXUS64 KMRX 030529
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 122 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
LATTER HALF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST. HOWEVER, MODELS DO NOT SHOW A CLEAN EXIT OF THE TROUGH, BUT
RATHER A WEAK UPPER LOW GETS CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW AND LEFT BEHIND
AND THEN MEANDERS OVER THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
LOW IS LOCATED MATTERS FOR THE DETAILS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH
DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN GREATEST INSTABILITY OCCURS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY WET
FROM RECENT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BROAD MARGINAL RISKS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
HOW QUICKLY THE WEAK UPPER LOW DEPARTS IS STILL UNCLEAR. HOWEVER,
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW US COMING UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MEAN FLOW
SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK, BUT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR TRI BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 70 88 72 / 60 20 70 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 69 86 71 / 50 20 70 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 68 86 70 / 50 10 60 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 66 84 67 / 50 20 60 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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