210
FXUS64 KMRX 040535
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- STUCK PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SYNOPTIC SITUATION LOOKS FAIRLY WELL UNDERSTOOD, WITH A TROUGH
CURRENTLY CUTTING OFF FROM UPPER WESTERLIES, PROCEEDING TO HANG
AROUND A COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN DISSIPATING AND BEING RE-ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLIES BY LATE WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
MIDWESTERN TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT, THOUGH THE TWO RIDGES (ONE IN THE
WEST, ONE IN THE ATLANTIC) MAY TRY TO BRIDGE THAT GAP.
THE END RESULT OF OUR SLOW MOVING UPPER FRIEND IS WE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
LIKELY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY
FOCUSED, THAT IS CENTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS,
BUT AS WE'VE SEEN THIS PAST EVENING, SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, JUST WITH LESSER COVERAGE. CONVECTION
MIGHT BE, ON SOME DAYS, FOCUSED MORESO ON THE LARGE TERRAIN FEATURES
WE HAVE AND LESS SO IN THE VALLEY, SIMILAR TO HOW MONDAY PROGRESSED,
BUT EACH DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF LIFT WE CAN OBTAIN
FROM THE RESIDENT UPPER LOW, ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY.
AS FAR AS RISKS, STEERING MOTIONS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE THIS WEEK, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLOOD RISK. PWATS AREN'T OVERLY HIGH,
BUT THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE ENOUGH COUPLED WITH THE OTHERWISE
SATISFACTORY MOISTURE CONTENT TO PRESENT A VERY LOW RISK. SHOULD ANY
DAY REALIZE MORE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STORM GROWTH, THEN A FEW GUSTY
WINDS IN COLLAPSING DOWNDRAFTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT WITH OUR LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT I THINK THAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL. AND ON
DAYS WHEN STORMS GET TALL ENOUGH, LIGHTNING OF COURSE. OTHERWISE
APART FROM STORMS WE LOOK TO HAVE STANDARD AUGUST TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT SUMMER WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT
CHANCES ON STATION ARE FAIRLY LOW. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TIMING. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 72 88 72 / 50 30 70 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 71 87 71 / 40 20 80 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 71 86 70 / 30 30 80 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 68 84 68 / 50 20 70 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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