202
FXUS64 KMRX 060544
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PRIMARILY FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING EXISTS
EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
DAILY DRUMBEAT OF DOLDRUMS WITH DIURNAL DOSES OF DOUR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DRIVEN WINDS, WINDS TO REMAIN
STAGNANT UNDER THE GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW. WE KEEP OUR MOIST AIRMASS, WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.7 - 1.8", ENOUGH TO HELP SPARK AT LEAST
OROGRAPHICALLY ORIGINATING STORMS EACH DAY, ANY VALLEY CONVECTION
WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW AFTER THE INITIAL TERRAIN UPSTARTS.
INTERESTINGLY EURO DEPICTS A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY IN FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY KNOXVILLE AND NORTH. THIS AIRMASS
ORIGINATES FROM WESTERN CANADA, AND THE GFS MATCHES THE PROGRESSION
UNTIL THE AIRMASS REACHES THE MIDWEST, AT WHICH POINT THE TWO MODELS
DIVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS. NBM HAS A LOCAL MINIMUM IN RAIN CHANCES ON
THOSE TWO DAYS, LIKELY TIED TO THE DRIER SOLUTIONS IN THE OVERALL
ENSEMBLE. IF RAIN ENDS UP NOT OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK, WE PROBABLY GAIN A COUPLE DEGREES IN TEMPERATURE IN
RESPONSE.
REGARDLESS, WE STILL HAVE A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SCATTERED DAILY
STORM CHANCES. NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AT
LEAST, AND NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT, BUT STILL WE CARRY THE TYPICAL
SUMMER HEAT AND TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS FROM LIGHTNING TO GUSTY
WINDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL. URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ON MOST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND WEEK STEERING FLOW, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR TRI THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED UNLESS THE HIGH CLOUDS MANAGE TO CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 72 89 72 / 60 20 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 71 88 71 / 60 10 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 70 88 70 / 60 10 50 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 67 85 67 / 50 30 50 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page