406
FXUS64 KMRX 072308 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 706 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED FLOODING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CURRENTLY, UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO STRONG TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH MOISTURE AND VERTICAL ASCENT
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. THIS MORNING, CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED HEATING WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEING THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.7 TO 1.9 WITH PEAK INSTABILITY
AROUND 1,500 J/KG. AS IN RECENT DAYS, ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN SLOWER-MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SATURDAY'S PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO OVER 40 KTS AND POTENTIALLY LESS
MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ALOFT BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL HEATING. OVERALL,
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMPARABLE TO RECENT DAYS. BY
MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN WITH FURTHER HEATING IN THE
LOWER-LEVELS INCREASING OVERALL LAPSE RATES TO 6 C/KM OR GREATER.
HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE INHIBITED BY DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH SIMILARLY ELEVATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION COMPARED TO MONDAY, LIKELY STRONGER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER JET WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO BETTER SUPPORT AND AT LEAST SOME
SHEAR THAT COULD HELP ORGANIZE STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS PERIOD REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS/VIS TONIGHT. CHA AND TYS HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAIN EARLIER,
WHICH SUGGESTS SOME LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY, AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG.
WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AT
TRI, NO RAIN HAS FALLEN, BUT FOG FROM THE NEARBY LAKE CAN SPREAD
IN AT ANY TIME. WILL HAVE JUST MVFR VIS FOR NOW AND LET LATER TAFS
UPDATE AS NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 91 73 93 / 10 40 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 89 72 91 / 0 30 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 89 71 91 / 0 40 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 85 68 87 / 10 40 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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