123
FXUS64 KMRX 082314 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 711 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOONS GENERALLY THE PERIOD OF MOST
ACTIVITY.
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY (AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND), WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NOT BE FAR EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE AR/TN BORDER IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. A WEAK MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OUT AHEAD
OF IT IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA
TODAY. FLOW IS WEAK AND PWAT VALUES HIGH, AND LIKE RECENT DAYS
THESE SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR AS
THE WEAK MID/UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND CONTINUES
TO DRIFT EAST. WEAK FLOW, PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE POINT TO
ANOTHER DAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL EXIT
EAST, BUT THE TREND HAS IT MOVING EAST MORE QUICKLY LEADING TO THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS BRINGS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TO
THE AREA, STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
MORE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR STILL GENERALLY LOOKS
WEAK, BUT GIVEN THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD POSE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LATER PERIODS WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING
ONE CAMP OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING US IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHILE ANOTHER CAMP BUILDS THE RIDGE EAST WITH THE JET
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH, THUS CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WHICH CAMP IS MORE CORRECT
AS WELL AS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHEAR ESPECIALLY NORTH BY MID-
WEEK WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW CAMP OF WHICH
SOME (INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS) BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED, BUT SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND SEVERE/FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE VIS/CIG FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ALL SITES HAD
SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME FORM OF
LOW CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP, BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD LIFR CONDITIONS IN TEMPOS AT ALL SITES,
WITH A MIX OF CIG/VIS REDUCTION, LIFTING LATE IN THE MORNING. CHA
AND TYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 91 73 91 / 20 40 10 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 90 72 90 / 20 30 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 89 72 90 / 20 30 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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