650
FXUS64 KMRX 090532
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOONS GENERALLY THE PERIOD OF MOST
ACTIVITY.
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY (AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND), WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NOT BE FAR EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS KY/WEST TN/AR LAST EVENING WILL
BE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY, CROSSING OUR AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY SIMILAR
SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WEAK FLOW, PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG POINT TO ANOTHER DAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY, WE WILL BE IN A NW FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING SOME MIDLEVEL
DRYING AND LOWER PW, BUT ALSO GREATER INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES
6.5-7 C/KM AND MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LACKING, BUT GIVEN THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE,
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD POSE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT OF
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS STILL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD, A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US AND A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A NW FLOW. SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND/OR UPSTREAM MCS REMNANTS MAY BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS
FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY LATER IN THE
WEEK, POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN WV, WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THERE'S DECENT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH MID MORNING. ONGOING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHERE THESE THIN/CLEAR
OUT, A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY, MOST LIKELY A MIX
OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY AS OPPOSED TO MVFR. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. BEST ODDS ARE NEAR/SOUTH OF I-40 SO WILL INCLUDE
AT KTYS AND KCHA ONLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 73 92 74 / 40 20 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 72 91 73 / 30 10 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 69 88 69 / 20 10 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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