976
FXUS64 KMRX 091730
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOONS GENERALLY THE PERIOD OF MOST
ACTIVITY.
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY (AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND), WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NOT BE FAR EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS KY/WEST TN/AR LAST EVENING WILL
BE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY, CROSSING OUR AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY SIMILAR
SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WEAK FLOW, PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG POINT TO ANOTHER DAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY, WE WILL BE IN A NW FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING SOME MIDLEVEL
DRYING AND LOWER PW, BUT ALSO GREATER INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES
6.5-7 C/KM AND MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LACKING, BUT GIVEN THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE,
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD POSE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT OF
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS STILL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD, A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US AND A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A NW FLOW. SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND/OR UPSTREAM MCS REMNANTS MAY BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS
FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY LATER IN THE
WEEK, POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN WV, WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD, ASIDE FROM ANY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS. THEN, VFR OVERNIGHT AT TYS AND CHA BUT MVFR FOG AT
TRI. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 74 93 / 20 50 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 91 73 91 / 10 20 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 91 72 91 / 10 30 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 88 69 87 / 10 20 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99
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