984
FXUS64 KMRX 110034
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
834 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 747 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING EACH
AFTERNOON.
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THE MAIN THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NOT BE FAR EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
A QUIET START TO THE WEEK BEFORE AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTLES IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICK
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNED OFF. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MID-AUGUST. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. LOOKING ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OUR CURRENT AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS NEAR-NORMAL. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECAYING MCS
TUESDAY MORNING TO MOVE INTO OUR VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN TN
COUNTIES. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL MCS TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE S GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION MID DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS NOT A CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
PLACEMENT/LOCATION GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING CONVECTION
THAT COULD IMPACT WHERE BOUNDARIES AND GRADIENTS SET UP, WHICH WILL
IMPACT WHERE AFTERNOON TS DEVELOPS/TRACKS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR THIS PRIMARY ROUND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORT NON-ZERO BULK
SHEAR THAT WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.
HRRR SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WITH STORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL MCS OR LINEAR STORM MODE. THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS LINES
UP WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY TWO. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) IN OUR VIRGINIA AREA WITH A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) DOWN INTO OUR
TN AREA. FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IN VIRGINIA AND NE
TENNESSEE. THE SIGNAL FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL REMAINS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO WITH WIND
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
WEEK. ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL HAVE
A GREATER RISK OF FLOODING. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MCS FORMATION,
BUT THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME, THE GREATER THE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS
TIMING, EXTENT, AND IMPACTS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT TYS AND CHA.
HIGHEST FOG PROBABILITIES ARE AT TRI, WITH HREF PROBS AROUND 30%
FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4MI. FOR TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN
HOW POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE. A PROB30 HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED AT TRI FOR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AS
THIS IS WHERE THE BEST AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG CAMS CURRENTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 93 74 93 / 10 30 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 92 74 90 / 0 20 40 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 92 72 91 / 0 20 40 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 88 69 86 / 10 30 60 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...KRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page