443
FXUS64 KMRX 131101 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
701 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 656 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE, BUT EACH DAY THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAYS. HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
LATEST MCS IS DEPARTING TO OUR EAST WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE. WILL LET THE FLOOD WATCH
RUN AS PLANNED DUE TO LINGERING ACTIVITY, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT OF
ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LARGELY TRENDING DOWNWARD.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, PARTICULARLY IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORMS. THE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE PRIMARILY QUIET, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING AND PER LATEST CAMS. WE
WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PWS BUT DUE TO LITTLE TO NO
SURFACE INSTABILITY, THUS, STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN TERMS OF A WIND THREAT. LOCALIZED
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALLOWING THE FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE
AS PLANNED WILL ALSO ALLOW US TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS PLAY OUT INTO
THE MORNING, AS CAMS ARE CURRENTLY DOING A VERY POOR JOB WITH SOME
SPOTTY CI OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN KY.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. AGAIN, MODELS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN COVERAGE(OR
GENERAL PRESENCE) AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE WARM AND MOIST
SUMMER AIRMASS COULD ALLOW FOR MUCAPE NEAR 2K J/KG AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.0 DEGC PER LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS. THE SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCE WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 20-25KTS. A FEW
STRONG OR MAYBE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PRIMARILY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES. WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST
WEEK, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
INTO FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE FURTHER LESSENS AS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
PRECEDING STORMS CAN IMPACT EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER, WE WILL START TO SEE A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE AS A RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. FOR THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY TO SEE HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE
MOST HOT AND HUMID DAYS. WHILE SOME PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND, THEY ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DAY WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DRIFT INTO THE VALLEY AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. INCREASING
COVERAGE OF POP CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THE
THEME TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ATTEMPTS TO WEAKEN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE
AGAIN TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS BEST AT KTRI DUE TO ONGOING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN VA/KY. DO NOT THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN
PROB30 GROUPS ARE WARRANTED TODAY DUE TO SPARSE COVERAGE. MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED IN CONVECTION. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INSISTENT ON FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KTRI BUT LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OR EVEN POTENTIAL LINGERING SHRA COULD
DISRUPT THAT SO HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 75 96 76 / 20 10 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 74 93 74 / 40 10 40 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 70 89 71 / 50 50 50 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST
CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...CD
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