163
FXUS64 KMRX 132339
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 725 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAYS. HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM E TN AND SW
VA BACK TOWARD W KY. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH
THIS PATTERN LARGELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE MESOSCALE
LEVEL. IF WE LOOK FURTHER NORTH, ANOTHER MCS IS TRACKING THROUGH
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF NE TN AND SW VA. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS BUBBLY CU FORMING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY, HIGH PWS, AND SUFFICIENT BULK WIND SHEAR ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. TODAY'S THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, PRIMARILY ACROSS SW VA
AND NE TN. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IMPACTS, BUT OVERALL OUR FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... AN INTENSIFYING RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL MCS IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 90S IN THE
VALLEYS. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY-LEVEL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW HIGH THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL GO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM IN THE LOW 70S WHILE OTHERS WARM THEM
INTO THE UPPER 70S. A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE TN, WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 100S. THIS HEAT WILL PEAK SUNDAY & MONDAY
BEFORE THE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE SW CONUS. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES AFTER
MONDAY AS MID- LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERN FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN WITH
BETTER DAILY SHOWER & STORM CHANCES MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE QUIET. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR TRI. DENSE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE NONE OF THE TERMINALS GOT RAIN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 96 77 97 / 10 20 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 89 71 90 / 10 30 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...MCD
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