871
FXUS64 KMRX 141657
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAYS. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE) IS EXPECTED
TO BE REACHED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY TO OUR SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTH AND MIDWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH STORMS FORMING UPSTREAM IN THE
MIDWEST THEN RIDING THE RIDGE DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. CAMS DID NOT DO WELL THURSDAY WITH PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS. CAMS ARE SPLIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING. THEREFORE, I CANNOT
RULE OUT ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE LATE IN THE EVENING LIKE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. IF
THAT HAPPENS, I THINK THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIKE THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS AND NOT A FULL BLOWN MCS. SPC HAS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN IN PLACES THAT HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN RECENTLY. AT
THE MOMENT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT ONE
MAY BE ISSUED LATER FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
IF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE LOCATIONS LIKE CHATTANOOGA MAY BRIEFLY REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES HEAT INDEX. THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE MAY STILL GET SOME LATE NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
STORMS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. SPC HAS THAT
AREA OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ISOLATED
FLOODING ISSUES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND IN PLACES THAT
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY MID WEEK, A RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. NBM HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON MONDAY MAINLY
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, POPS LOOK TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
NOT POSSIBLE TO TIME WELL AT ANY GIVEN SITE, BUT WILL CARRY
PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPMENT
CHANCES WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPEND ON IF AND WHEN
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT A TERMINAL WHICH IS STILL UNKNOWN, SO
WILL KEEP THE MVFR VSBY IN FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AT TRI FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 97 76 99 / 10 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 95 75 97 / 20 30 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 95 75 96 / 20 30 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 90 71 91 / 30 50 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST
POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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