631
FXUS64 KMRX 142344
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 726 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES GENERALLY HIGHER NORTH
THAN SOUTH. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW OVERALL, BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
- VERY HOT FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS. THEN IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT LIKELY A BIT LESS OPPRESSIVE.
- DRIER MID WEEK, THEN AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AGAIN OCCURRING AROUND THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SHEAR, THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM WET MICROBURSTS
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SPC MARGINAL RISK. THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS,
AND VERY WET SOILS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
ANY PROLONGED OR REPEATED HEAVY RAINS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER JET RETREATS FURTHER NORTH AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST EXPANDS OVER OUR REGION. OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY STAY MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AS THE CAP IS
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO HOLD CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE
RIDGE, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL NOT CERTAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THREATS
OF WIND AND FLOODING SIMILAR TO TODAY. SUNDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
HAVE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE HEAT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY, AND SOME SPOTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 IN
SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. A HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY
END UP NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
BY LATER SHIFTS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS QUITE HOT BUT WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY, AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THAT MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
THAT FAR OUT, WILL KEEP MONDAY OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.
FURTHER OUT, MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SOME DRYING FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD, WITH THE NBM SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME, BUT CURRENTLY THE HEAT LOOKS LIKELY TO BE LESS OPPRESSIVE
THAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
STORMS REMAIN NEAR TRI, OTHERWISE, STORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
HAVE DISSIPATED. STORMS NEAR TRI WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED NEAR TRI AND FOG IS LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR POSSIBLY SCATTERED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 97 76 98 / 10 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 89 71 90 / 20 50 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST
POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...MCD
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