617
FXUS64 KMRX 151152
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH CHANCES GENERALLY HIGHER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW OVERALL, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
- VERY HOT FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS. THEN IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEK BUT LIKELY A BIT LESS OPPRESSIVE.
- NEXT WEEK, BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MONDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTH AND MIDWEST TODAY. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH STORMS FORMING UPSTREAM IN THE MIDWEST THEN
RIDING THE RIDGE DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE SOUTH AND MORE SCATTERED TO THE
NORTH. A MINOR WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
BRINGING STORMS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. SPC BRINGS THE MARGINAL RISK TO
AROUND THE KNOXVILLE AREA FOR TODAY AND THE SLIGHT RISK CLIPS OUR
NORTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED. AT THE MOMENT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD
WATCH WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING THE BULK OF THE STORMS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND PLATEAU. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO THE KNOXVILLE AREA.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS AND WE BREAK FREE FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. EVEN
WITH A DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY, THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
STRONG WINDS OR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE STORMS THAT DO FORM.
BY MONDAY, THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT, THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. BY MID WEEK, A RIDGE
WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY AND LATE IN THE WEEK POPS LOOK TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
DENSE FOG AT TRI SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
ALREADY INDICATES THE CHANCE RETURNS TONIGHT. CALM CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL TURN OVER TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS, ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PM HOURS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 97 76 99 76 / 20 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 94 75 96 75 / 20 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 94 74 96 74 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 71 91 71 / 40 10 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST
POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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