637
FXUS64 KMRX 211119
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 710 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
- THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, EXTENDING
DOWN TO FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT OR STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE KY/VA BORDER INTO WEST TN. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY GET INTO THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES
COMPLETELY. THE CAMS HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM EITHER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR FARTHER EAST OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND INTO NW GEORGIA. THE CAMS SHOW THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NE TENNESSEE, SW
VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. THE SPC OUTLOOK
KEEPS THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TO OUR EAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FACTOR IN WHETHER OR NOT
WE HAVE STRONG STORMS ON THIS SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE.
THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST BUT THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE, THE WEEKEND WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE NBM HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING TO 40-50%
CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR BUT THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE PATTERN MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
TS EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGRESSING SMOOTHLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN ROUGHLY THE FIRST HOUR OF THE
PERIOD. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR TS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINTAINED A PROB30 AT KTRI FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. ODDS ARE REMOTE NEAR KTYS AND NOT EXPECTED AT KCHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 71 93 69 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 69 88 67 / 40 20 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 68 89 65 / 40 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 65 83 63 / 80 40 30 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page