358
FXUS64 KMRX 211844
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER - THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LIMITED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT
BEST. STORM MOTIONS WILL VARY GIVEN WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE'LL DRY OUT AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY IN LOW
LYING AREAS & LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL, IN THE 80S, WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR ON
TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON ARE TAP
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL NOAM. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-
WEEK. THAT MEANS THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID WEATHER & RAIN CHANCES
TOO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NBM POPS
ARE GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT RANGE NEXT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY,
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ON THE
HORIZON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE, BUT ALL
SITES MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO
AMD ON THE FLY TO ADDRESS THIS. BEYOND THIS TS THREAT, THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT TO CALM. KTRI AND KTYS HAVE THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
FG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TURN MORE WSWERLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 93 68 91 / 0 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 89 66 86 / 20 10 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 90 64 87 / 10 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 84 63 81 / 30 20 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BH
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