030
FXUS64 KMRX 221809 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
209 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE
EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
PUBLISHED A SMALL UPDATE A BRIEF BIT AGO TO ADD FOG INTO THE EARLY
MORNING SUNRISE PERIOD AND TO EXPAND THE AREA OF LOW RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AFTER
SEEING THE NEW DAY 1 FORECAST FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
COVERAGE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IS LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED, IF
ANYTHING OCCURS AT ALL, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, EXTENDING
DOWN TO FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS OVER NORTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND LOW-LYING AREAS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE, WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE COME IN WETTER FOR TODAY THIS CYCLE
THAN LAST CYCLE, I THINK THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH MAX HEATING. A FEW STRONG STORMS, POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW POINTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SUNDAY DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S
(CHATTANOOGA AREA MAY HIT 90).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH ON THE
EAST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE NBM HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INCREASING TO 30-40% CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AT LEAST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN EAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION TONIGHT JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT. KTRI STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHRA/TSRA
BUT EVEN THAT'S NOT CERTAIN. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS IN AT KTRI AND
KTYS TO HANDLE THINGS. KCHA SEEMS LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION. THE LAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT PRECLUDE MENTIONING THAT IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOMENT.
KTRI WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT IF IT OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 68 90 64 / 0 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 65 86 62 / 20 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 63 86 60 / 20 30 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 81 56 / 40 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...CD
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