352
FXUS64 KMRX 230001
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
801 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ISN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, BUT OVERALL SEVERE
CHANCES ARE LOW.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF SOME DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WHILE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS EXIST TO OUR NORTH, WE'LL
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT THIS EVENING,
WITH ENOUGH SHEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME CLUSTER TYPE CELL
ORGANIZATION AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME FAIRLY STRONG
STORMS. AGAIN, BETTER CHANCES EXIST TO OUR NORTH, BUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR ANY POINTS ROUGHLY NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THAT BEING SAID, THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
ARE OVERALL ON THE LOW SIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE PULLING AWAY THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA ON TUESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP US DRY SUN THROUGH TUE BEFORE RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST AGAIN. DEWPOINTS MAY EVEN MIX OUT INTO THE 50S FOR BOTH SUN
AND MON AFTERNOONS. AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS BOTH DAYS, THE DRIER AIR WOULD BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE
HUMID CONDITIONS OF LATE. AS MENTIONED, RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY
MIDWEEK AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REGION WED INTO THU BEFORE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW GIVES US ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COOLER AIR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
STRONG STORMS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY NEAR TRI. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THE FRONT STALLS AND CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 87 62 87 / 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 87 61 87 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 81 57 82 / 50 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page