645
FXUS64 KMRX 230521
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ISOLATED AND EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- CLEARING SKIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LEAD TO FOG IN THE
MORNING HOURS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MORNING BRINGING
COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ON OUR DOORSTEP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ISOLATED BUT NEW ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. CAMS AND THE NBM AGREE
THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 1 OR 2 AM EDT. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE AND FOG WILL
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S (CHATTANOOGA AREA MAY HIT 90-91).
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE NBM HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 40-60% CHANCES
BY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE PATTERN ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END TONIGHT, SO THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONCERN IN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG THIS MORNING. LESS CERTAIN AT KTYS, BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI AGAIN. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR 13Z, THEN
VFR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 82 57 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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