515
FXUS64 KMRX 232339
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST DRIFTS
SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A DRY DAYS AND COMFORTABLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.
BY MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE TO
INCREASE. MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT RIGHT NOW
THE ENSEMBLE DATA JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE
AND > 30KT BULK SHEAR ARE MINIMAL AT BEST AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS QUITE LOW.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FURTHER OUT, BUT MODELS GENERALLY
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NBM STILL HAS SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THESE DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY NOT BE FAR EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE TAF CYCLE. BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG/BR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT TRI AS THE FORECAST LOW IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE OF 55 DEGREES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
IN FOG POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING LESS THAN MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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