745
FXUS64 KMRX 241811
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
211 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
- DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A
DRY DAYS AND COMFORTABLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.
BY MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE TO
INCREASE. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
MODELS SHOW ADDITIOANL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING OF THE FRONT/MAIN FORCING WILL MATTER AND ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SEE ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE
ENSEMBLE DATA JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND
> 30KT BULK SHEAR ARE MINIMAL AT BEST AND THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS QUITE LOW.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE NBM JUST HAS SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGING BUILDING IN WE WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TRI. RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY
OF FOG IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS
PREVAILING, BUT WILL INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBY IN FOG
AROUND SUNRISE AT TRI. OTHERWISE, A VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD
ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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