824
FXUS64 KMRX 251129
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 726 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUES TODAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS,
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ALOFT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CYCLING AWAY. THE PERSISTENT SW RIDGE WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TROUGHING LIFTS NORTH NEXT WEEKEND,
ALLOWING HIGHER HEIGHTS TO MOVE IN THE LAST DAYS OF AUGUST. VALLEY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
AS A RESULT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN RE-ENTERING THE FORECAST LATER TOMORROW,
WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME THURSDAY,
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, AS WELL AS A
WEST TO EAST DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW AT
LEAST 20KT BULK SHEAR AS WELL AS CAPE NEAR AND ABOVE 1000 J/KG
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF STRONG
TO SEVERE IS POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH TRYING TO DRY OUT AREAS UNDERNEATH IT. THE NBM, HOWEVER,
DOES KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
PATCHY FOG ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING, BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS THE
PRIOR TWO MORNINGS. MAINTAINED A BRIEF 1 HOUR TEMPO AT KTRI IN
CASE IT DECIDES TO FOG SUDDENLY IN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SOLAR
HEATING BRINGS A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, VFR CONDITIONS,
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, DEPENDENT ON HOW SIGNIFICANT
THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACH TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 68 93 71 / 0 0 20 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 66 91 69 / 0 0 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 65 90 69 / 0 0 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 62 87 66 / 0 0 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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