440
FXUS64 KMRX 251704
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
104 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL SEE A
TREND TOWARD HOTTER CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS,
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ALOFT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CYCLING AWAY. THE PERSISTENT SW RIDGE WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TROUGHING LIFTS NORTH NEXT WEEKEND,
ALLOWING HIGHER HEIGHTS TO MOVE IN THE LAST DAYS OF AUGUST. VALLEY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
AS A RESULT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN RE-ENTERING THE FORECAST LATER TOMORROW,
WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME THURSDAY,
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, AS WELL AS A
WEST TO EAST DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS SHOW AT
LEAST 20KT BULK SHEAR AS WELL AS CAPE NEAR AND ABOVE 1000 J/KG
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF STRONG
TO SEVERE IS POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH TRYING TO DRY OUT AREAS UNDERNEATH IT. THE NBM, HOWEVER,
DOES KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 94 72 90 / 0 0 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 91 70 89 / 0 0 20 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 91 69 88 / 0 0 20 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 87 66 86 / 0 10 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page