629
FXUS64 KMRX 260601
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY.
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL SEE A
TREND TOWARD HOTTER CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PLACED TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY. THE EVER PERSISTENT SW RIDGE
WILL CYCLE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING OUR DIRECTION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW BEFORE CYCLING BACK INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SEND
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY, PROVIDING
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM,
TROUGHING LIFTS NORTH THE LAST WEEKEND OF AUGUST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO MOVE IN, INCREASE HEIGHTS, AND THUS, BRING HOTTER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO WELCOME IN SEPTEMBER. VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70 ARE FORECAST.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WILL
ALLOW THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT FOR PULSE CONVECTION TO FORM PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN (SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS) TODAY. SHEAR WILL BE
ON THE WEAKER SIDE, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT. PRIME TIMING WILL BE THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BETTER COVERAGE WITH INCREASED CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA, COMES TOMORROW AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT BETTER, AS WELL AS SHEAR, BUT THE CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ISN'T AS CLEAR. THURSDAY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
PORTRAY AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WILL BE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS IN FROM THE NORTH TRYING TO DRY OUT AREAS UNDERNEATH IT. THE
NBM, HOWEVER, DOES KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSER
TO 0 AT KTRI BUT GIVEN NO FOG YESTERDAY MORNING, AND LESSER
SUPPORT FOR THIS MORNING, INCLUDED A PATCHY FOG NOTE IN THE TAF
BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN EVEN A TEMPO FOR VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY ON TAP WITH ANY SHOWERS FORMING LIKELY TO
BE ANCHORED OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 72 90 71 / 10 30 70 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 70 89 70 / 10 20 50 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 69 88 69 / 10 20 60 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 66 86 66 / 10 10 40 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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